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Nuevo Documento de Trabajo de Vicente Esteve y María A. Prats

Financial bubbles and sustainability of public debt: The case of Spain

In this paper thed ynamics of the Spanish public debt-GDP ratio is analysed during the period 1850-2020. We use a recent procedure to test for recurrent explosive behaviour (Phillips, WuandYu, 2011, and Phillips, ShiandYu, 2015a, 2015b) in order to identify episodes of explosive public debt dynamics and also the episodes of …scal adjustments over this long period.

Keywords: Public debt; Fiscal sustainability; Explosiveness; Recursive unit root test; Spain; COVID-19

JEL classification: C12, C22, E62, H62, H6